Spartans and Badgers meet in Big Ten tussle

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/02/2010 - Madison, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The fifth-ranked Michigan State Spartans will attempt to remain perfect in Big Ten play when they pay a visit to the 16th- ranked Wisconsin Badgers, who are undefeated at home this season.

Michigan State is riding a 10-game win streak, as the club hasn't suffered a defeat since December 22nd. The Spartans haven't exactly been dominant in recent weeks, as their last six wins have come by single digits. They are 19-3 overall and are coming off a 79-70 decision over Northwestern.

As for Wisconsin, it had a modest two-game win streak halted with a 60-57 loss at Purdue last Thursday. The fact that the Badgers are just 2-4 at home and 12-0 at home illustrates how much more formidable they have been in Madison than in enemy territory. Wisconsin is 16-5 overall and 6-3 in conference.

Michigan State beat Wisconsin by a 54-47 final on January 6th, and the Spartans own a 68-58 series lead.

Through 22 outings, Michigan State is generating 76.5 ppg on 48.6 percent shooting from the floor, and the club is holding its opponents to 63.7 ppg on 39.5 percent field goal efficiency. The Spartans have been a dominant rebounding squad, ripping down 9.8 rpg more than the opposition on average. Kalin Lucas is netting 16.0 ppg to go along with 89 assists to pace Tom Izzo's squad, and Raymar Morgan checks in with 11.1 ppg. Rounding out a foursome of double-digit scorers are Durrell Summers (10.8 ppg) and Draymond Green (10.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg). Summers racked up 24 points and 10 rebounds in the victory over Northwestern on Saturday, and Lucas added 23 points. Delvon Roe netted 13 points for the Spartans, who shot 51.9 percent from the floor and earned a 37-27 rebounding advantage. A 22-13 edge in points from the foul line helped the cause as well.

Strong defense has been key to Wisconsin's success this season as expected, as the squad is holding foes to 57.1 ppg on 41 percent shooting from the floor. At the offensive end of the court, the Badgers are generating 68.1 ppg, and there are two active double-digit scorers in the fold. Trevon Hughes is netting 16.0 ppg, and Jason Bohannon provides 10.4 ppg. Wisconsin suffered a 37-25 rebounding disadvantage against Purdue last week, perhaps the most obvious contributing factor in the setback. The Badgers finished with 20 field goals in 50 minutes of action, an effort that simply wasn't good enough. Keaton Nankivil was the lone bright spot for Wisconsin, as he nailed 7-of-8 three-pointers en route to 25 points. The rest of the team combined to shoot 2-of-15 from behind the arc.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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